Climate Change in Zurich

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report from 2007, there are some dire predictions for most of the continents on Earth, with devastating consequences for human health and ecosystem health.  Zurich, Switzerland is no exception.  There are many changes that are projected to take place.  As with many regions of the world the temperatures are expected to rise.  Precipitation is expected to decline, which means less accumulated snow pack, a source of fresh water for the lakes and rivers in the region.  Glacial retreat is also happening at an alarming rate,and is expected to continue with further warming.  The ecosystems in the alpine regions greatly depend on cold temperatures to maintain their natural processes.  Disturbing this system could be catastrophic.

This is the Rhone Glacier.  Studies estimate these glaciers are losing a meter of thickness every year.  Source: http://www.ethlife.ethz.ch/archive_articles/100607_Gletscher_su/index_EN

Increases in severe weather are also expected in the region.  While precipitation is expected to decline many places will see more frequent heavy rains.  This is dangerous to the region because heavier rains cause damage to crops and accelerate soil degradation.  With higher temperatures and less precipitation, wildfires tend to be more common.  Without trees in the area to maintain soil health, landslides generally result.  Switzerland is a mountainous region and with heavy rains, no trees, and steep landscapes, slope instability can be costly.  Zurich, as with many Swiss cities is located at the edge of a lake.  With heavy rain events Lake Zurich is at a greater risk of flooding.  Flood events have increased 25% from 1950-2005.  This is partially due to human encroachment on flood plains.  Another extreme event that could increase is the occurrence of heat waves.  European cities have been experiencing record breaking heat waves in the last few years that have resulted in many lost lives.  In Zurich where temperatures are typically cooler than many other cities in Western Europe heat waves are less deadly, but this could change with continued temperature increase. 

The sprawl of city development increases the urban heat island effect, exacerbating heat waves when they occur.  Source: http://www.thenotquitedailydispatch.com/2009/09/25/hit-in-the-head-by-hail-in-a-heatwave/

A factor that could make these events more deadly is that much of Europe has an aging population.  Elderly people tend to be more vulnerable in the face of these issues.

Population pyramid year 2010. Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/country/sz-switzerland/Age-_distribution

Population pyramid year 2050, showing a much higher percentage of elderly people. Source: http://www.nationmaster.com/country/sz-switzerland/Age-_distribution

The result of climate change and extreme events will no doubt have serious impacts on the local economy.  Switzerland relies heavily on tourist dollars, for the ski industry, summer hiking, wildlife viewing, and city strolling.  With less snow pack accumulation in the Alps the ski industry will suffer, much as it did this season in the Colorado Rockies.

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Hiking and viewing wildlife could be affected with climate change as well.  If increased temperatures, lack of fresh water, and increased extreme weather events, the local biodiversity could be highly at risk.  However in recent years there have been populations of bears moving into the Austrian-Swiss Alps.  The wildlife may be different than it is today, but hopefully there will be areas remote enough to avoid human impacts.

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Fortunately for the local economy, and the future of the nation, Switzerland is among the top in the world of future thinking in terms of climate change.  Zurich is the source of many new environmentally friendly technologies.  They are investing economically and academically in the future of the global environment.  Many meteorological schools come out of Switzerland to research the effects of climate change.  In Switzerland new practices of living are being implemented regularly to combat the anthropological impacts on climate.  This region is naturally very windy and they have been taking advantage of that fact with wind farms.  There are also large fields of solar panels to help provide energy for residents.  The Foundation For Global Sustainability is based in Zurich and they work on solutions to agriculture, urban planning, mobility, energy, and waste disposal.  Zurich is highly developed, they have incredible adaptive capacity, and will no doubt thrive regardless of the effects of climate change.  More likely than suffer, they will be instrumental in helping others solve their local problems.

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Tourism will never die in a country like Switzerland.  Although the ski and snowboard industry may suffer from a lack of snow, there will always be beautiful scenery.  Aside from the cheese and chocolate, the hiking and rock climbing will be awe inspiring no matter what!!

Source: http://www.swissworld.org

Blog Post #3

The close proximity to the Alps Mountain range is the biggest determining factor for the meso and micro scale climate in Zurich.  There is a high level of orographically determined precipitation and temperature.  Zurich is in a valley north of the Alps and the meso scale climate varies greatly from year to year but is typically the opposite of what the Southern Alpine Region is experiencing.  The air masses that move over the region determine which side of the mountains receive the precipitation.  If Zurich is rainy there is a high probability that the Southern Alps will be dry, and vice versa.  Several programs have been implemented to try to study the patterns of meso scale climate in Switzerland, the RAPHAEL program and the Mesoscale Alpine Programme are two examples.  Their aim was to be able to predict precipitation for the mitigation of flood risk.  They found incredibly varying levels of rain and snowfall, the variability, again, is orographic in nature.  They were able to attain accurate predictions of location of rainfall but the amounts proved impossible to predict.

In the winter Zurich has less precipitation because the air masses are largely from the south which means they drop their moisture in the south before flowing over the Alps.  In the summer the effect is the opposite as air masses are coming down from the north and dropping rain over the region.  As the air masses in the region shift the wind speeds and directions also shift, when they are moving east to west there can be devastating effects in the region.  The valley Zurich lies in is generally oriented east to west.  Therefore when air masses are moving this direction they pick up speed while moving along the mountain range.  Extreme wind events are very common.

Fig. 1: Wind gusts as a function of return period in Zurich-Fluntern. The blue curve represents the function calculated by means of statistical analysis. Wind gusts measured over the period 1981-2007 are depicted by black dots. See text for further details. Source: http://www.meteoschweiz.ch/web/en/climate/climate_reports/frequency_of_extreme_wind_speeds.html

On a micro scale the same forces are at work.  Zurich is also a large city, with a population of slightly over 1 million living in an area of 38.5 square miles.  There is most certainly an urban heat island effect happening on a micro, local level.  The main weather station that collects data for Zurich is located at the airport.  Airports are large plots of concrete which reflect a lot of heat.  This weather station is naturally going to reflect higher temperatures than a station located on top of a mountain nearby.

Historical data has been collected in Switzerland 1870, this data is currently being used to forecast impacts and determine the severity of climate change in the region.

Source: http://www.meteoschweiz.ch/web/de/forschung/publikationen/alle_publikationen/Das_Schweizer_Klima_im_Trend.html

 This graph shows the average winter temps recorded in Zurich from 1870-2000.  There is a clear upward trend indicating that temperatures have been steadily rising in the area.  This does not necessarily mean that climate change is the cause.  As mentioned earlier this is a highly urbanized area and some of this warming could be a result of an urban heat island effect.

Source: http://www.meteoschweiz.ch/web/de/forschung/publikationen/alle_publikationen/Das_Schweizer_Klima_im_Trend.html

This graph shows the average summer temperatures from 1870-2000.  The trend lines in this graph are far less impressive than the rise in temperatures for winter months further suggesting that climate change is probably not the only factor in changing temperatures.

Source: http://www.meteoschweiz.ch/web/de/forschung/publikationen/alle_publikationen/Das_Schweizer_Klima_im_Trend.html

This precipitation graph also shows very little historical change, there is a slight noticeable increase over the last 130 years but it is minimal and probably has more to do with reflection of anomalies over time.

Source: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/LSZH/1997/1/30/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

This graph is based on temperatures recorded at the weather station in Zurich from 1996-2012, with the obvious exception of June 2012.  As in the graph above depicting historic summer temperatures there does not seem to be a clear indication of consistently rising temperatures.  Although 2003 was an incredibly unusually warm winter.

The Koppen-Geiger classification system was put in place by two Germans, it was created in 1928 and placed broad classifications on the continents based on observed climate patterns.  Switzerland is in an area that has a lot of diversity topographically and was clearly difficult to classify.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Koppen_World_Map.png

Europe according to Koppen-Geiger

 This is obviously not an exact science and these borders cannot be clearly defined.  As this picture indicates Switzerland is full of flux climatically.  According to this graphic most of Switzerland lies in what Koppen-Geiger classify as tundra.  This means that there is at least one month of the year warm enough to melt snow but no full month with an average over 50F.  This has huge impact on the types of vegetation and wildlife that can exist in the area.  Tundra, or Alpine, environments perfectly fit the Swiss environment.

Source: http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=climograph+of+zurich&view=detail&id=FCD9125C92E11CA9E34E5EECA27B625EF0D3546F&first=0

Reflection Post: Zurich, Switzerland vs. Lima, Peru

Lima Coastline hugs the Pacific Ocean

Source: http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/samerica/pe.htm

The other location I was interested in researching for this blog assignment was Lima, Peru.  So, instead of doing the research myself I will compare the work of another student to my chosen location in Switzerland.  These two areas are very different in terms of climate.  They are nearly opposite in terms of meritimity and continentality, they are in different hemispheres which makes summer and winter months reversed and they are latitudinally very different as well.  The only thing Lima and Zurich have in relative common is that they are both located near a mountain range.  Even this topographical similarity does not provide a lot of commonalities between the two.  Lima is situated near the coast of the Pacific Ocean receiving foggy air before it hits the Andes Mountains.  Zurich is in a valley doesn't receive oceanic or sea air until after it flows over the Alps.  This makes the effects of the mountains on the air masses opposite in these two cities.  When Zurich is experiencing more northerly air masses it sees the same foggy conditions as Lima, but these air masses are colder as they have come from polar regions in Russia and Northern Europe. 

Zurich is located much further away from the equator than Lima and therefore has much more drastic weather patterns.  It gets much colder in the winter and sees much more precipitation, especially in the form of snow.  This also means that Zurich experiences mid-latitude cyclonic conditions whereas Lima experiences effects from the ICTZ.  The West Coast of South America is also greatly affected by El Nino and La Nina, Pacific Ocean patterns that are extremely different than the forces acting on Switzerland. 

Landlocked Zurich is surrounded with mountains, lakes and rivers

Topographical Phenomena of Zurich, Cyclones, and Air Masses

Source: http://www.swisseduc.ch/immersion/geo/meteo/weather/docs/weather_situations.pdf

Four advective wind situations are defined for Switzerland, they are horizontal air flows, a low pressure, cold system from Iceland and a high pressure system from the Azores.

Source: http://www.swisseduc.ch/immersion/geo/meteo/weather/docs/weather_situations.pdf

During Northfoehn the precipitation in Zurich increases as air moves toward the Alps in the south.  The rise and cool as they approach the Alps creating clouds.

During Southfoehn conditions the precipitation is much greater because the air is moving in from the Mediterranean Sea.  Zurich is on the leeward side of the Alps during these condition so it will often see a foehn window where the cloud breaks up.

During a Bise situation the air is moving easterly, Zurich is on the eastern side of the country and therefore sees less wind than the west side where the mountain ranges get closer and the valley gets narrower.

West Winds blow for approximately 60% of the year, and creates more intense weather on the north side of the Alps than the south.  This is an important factor for the local weather conditions.

Source: http://www.swisseduc.ch/immersion/geo/meteo/weather/docs/weather_situations.pdf

 This is a westerly polar front connecting two low pressure cells.  The polar front is forcing it's way under the warm front from the east and causing a cold occlusion.

Two convective systems are defined for Switzerland, the anticyclone and the flat pressure distribution system.  These convective air movements create local climate conditions by vertically moving air.  Differences in local high or low pressure conditions will cause differing local winds.

Source: http://www.swisseduc.ch/immersion/geo/meteo/weather/docs/weather_situations.pdf

Anticyclonic patterns create fairly boring weather patterns.  The air is dropping slowly while losing humidity.  They do tend to create haze or stratoform clouds, especially in winter in low lying areas north of the Alps.

Flat Pressure distribution results in rising air, converse to anticyclonic patterns, they are more likely to form cumuloform clouds.

The Swiss Alps have a lot of influence on the weather and climate of the country, when precipitation is compared to different regions such as Oklahoma where the land is flat the patterns are very different.  Because systems get interrupted and don't have time to build up they tend to be more mild.  Switzerland does see hail storms but they do not see intense tornado producing thunderstorms like Oklahoma does.

The air masses that occur over Zurich are much the same as the rest of Europe.  The continent itself is relatively small, mostly falls in high latitudes and is largely surrounded by water. 

In the summer months Continental Polar (cP) and Maritime Polar (mP) air masses dominate.  The cP air masses are cooler whereas the mP masses are more stable in temperature, having crossed the Atlantic Ocean.  When these two air masses meet they develop cyclonic summer precipitation.  Summer months also see influence Continental Tropical (cT) and Maritime Tropical (mT) air masses.  These tropical air masses have some influence but because they are blocked by mountains and stabilized by ocean and sea they produce far less dramatic weather events than similar air masses in North America.

In winter months the same four air masses are influential.  The mP and cP fronts are what cause most of the precipitation in the Alps however it falls mostly to the south and affects Zurich less.  The clashing of mT and cT air masses have similar effects.

Source: http://www.publishyourarticles.org/knowledge-hub/articles/brief-notes-on-air-masses-of-europe.html



Source: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/06670.html

This is a satellite image of Swizterland from April 5, 2012.  The current temperature at 9:10pm CEST was 47F and raining.  The data is collected from the Zurich Airport and is accompanied by webcam photos.  Tomorrow's forecast says 0% chance of precipitation and a high of 57F with fog.

Here is a link to view, among many things, a live webcam of the Zurich airport. Live Web Cam at Zurich Airport

Source: http://www.zurich-airport.com/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-277/473_read-113/

Adjustments to Earth Using GEEBIT Ver. B3

Using GEEBIT Ver. B3 to adjust certain factors of Earth such as distance from the sun, surface albedo, and atmospheric absorptivity, we can shift the average temperature of the planet.  Changing one factor at a time by only 10% in either direction can have profound effects.

The first factor I changed was the distance of Earth from the Sun.  The current distance is 149.6 million miles, or 1 astronomical unit (AU).  At this distance we enjoy a comfortable temperature of 5.5C, or 41.9F.
At 0.9 AU, 10% closer to the sun, increases Earth's temperature to 20.6C, or 69F.
At 1.1 AU, 10% further from the sun, decreases Earth's temperature to -7.5C, or 18.5F.

The next factor I shifted was the surface albedo, this changes the amount of solar radiation that the Earth absorbs and reflects.  The current reality is 0.306, we set this as default at 0.0 in the GEEBIT model.  Setting all other factors back to normal, let's see what happens.
At 0.1, 10% higher, the Earth's temperature decreases to -1.8C, or 28.8F.
At -0.1, 10% lower, the Earth's temperature increases to 12.2C, or 54F.

The last factor the model allows manipulation with is the atmospheric absorptivity, or greenhouse gas factor.  This changes the amount of solar radiation, or short wave radiation, that the atmosphere is taking in, it also affects the amount of long wave radiation that is absorbed or released from the Earth.  Once again we set the current level at a default of 0.0.
At 0.1, 10% higher, the temperature increases to 9.9C, or 49.8F.
At -0.1, 10% lower, the temperature decreases to 0.9C, or 33.6F.

We can see by this very simple model that it does not take a huge shift in any direction to drastically change the temperature of the planet.  We would be wise to remember that the difference between an ice age and our current comfort zone is only about 5C.  All of these factors shifted the temperature by far more than that with only 10% change in either direction.

Average Weather & Climate for Zurich, Switzerland

This is a graph of annual average precipitation in Zurich, Switzerland

This is a graph of the minimum and maximum mean temperatures in Zurich, Switzerland

Source: http://www.weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-precipitation-Rainfall,Zurich,Switzerland

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Temperature -1.0 0.2 3.9 7.7 12.1 15.0 16.7 16.0 12.9 7.8 3.0 0.0 7.9 Precipitation 68 61 69 88 106 139 138 132 101 80 72 73 1123

 Source: http://www.about.ch/geography/climate/zuerich.html

The average annual precipitation and temperature follow the same pattern.  The summer months are warm with higher levels of rain, the winter months are colder and drier.  July is the wettest month while February is the driest.

Zurich, Switzerland is located in the North of Switzerland, it's climate is affected more by the Atlantic Ocean than the Mediterranean Sea.  Because it is blocked from the sea the climate is more continental, it is less moderate than the southern portion of the country.  It's exact coordinates are:

Latitude:	N	47°	23'	(Swiss Grid X: 683.2)
Longitude:	E	8°	32'	(Swiss Grid Y: 248.0)
Elevation:	408 m			(1339 feet)

The climate throughout Switzerland is fairly dry, this coupled with high elevations, especially in the areas where the Alps are located make it an arid environment which means a higher Bowen Ratio.  Switzerland is also a landlocked country, increasing the continentality of its climate.  Even though Switzerland sees a good amount of snowfall it is mainly concentrated in the high elevations of the Alps which are south of Zurich.  Switzerland also has many large lakes and because of high altitude snows there are many rivers and waterfalls that drain into these lakes.  These help to moderate the climate somewhat.  Due to the unique geography of Switzerland it lies in a transitional area of Europe's climatic zones.  The four main zones in Europe all converge in Switzerland so it is highly dependent on where one is in the country as to the climate they are experiencing.

The wildlife and vegetation is what one would expect in any high alpine environment, wildcats, elk, mountain goats, ibex, and depending on the area of the country the trees vary from oak to palm.  There are also many areas quite conducive to vineyards and olive trees.  Also because of the many large lakes there is an active fishing culture around the country.

Topographic map of Switzerland, Source: http://www.worldofmaps.net/en/europe/map-switzerland/topographic-map-switzerland.htm