Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Adjustments to Earth Using GEEBIT Ver. B3

Using GEEBIT Ver. B3 to adjust certain factors of Earth such as distance from the sun, surface albedo, and atmospheric absorptivity, we can shift the average temperature of the planet.  Changing one factor at a time by only 10% in either direction can have profound effects.

The first factor I changed was the distance of Earth from the Sun.  The current distance is 149.6 million miles, or 1 astronomical unit (AU).  At this distance we enjoy a comfortable temperature of 5.5C, or 41.9F.
At 0.9 AU, 10% closer to the sun, increases Earth's temperature to 20.6C, or 69F.
At 1.1 AU, 10% further from the sun, decreases Earth's temperature to -7.5C, or 18.5F.

The next factor I shifted was the surface albedo, this changes the amount of solar radiation that the Earth absorbs and reflects.  The current reality is 0.306, we set this as default at 0.0 in the GEEBIT model.  Setting all other factors back to normal, let's see what happens.
At 0.1, 10% higher, the Earth's temperature decreases to -1.8C, or 28.8F.
At -0.1, 10% lower, the Earth's temperature increases to 12.2C, or 54F.

The last factor the model allows manipulation with is the atmospheric absorptivity, or greenhouse gas factor.  This changes the amount of solar radiation, or short wave radiation, that the atmosphere is taking in, it also affects the amount of long wave radiation that is absorbed or released from the Earth.  Once again we set the current level at a default of 0.0.
At 0.1, 10% higher, the temperature increases to 9.9C, or 49.8F.
At -0.1, 10% lower, the temperature decreases to 0.9C, or 33.6F.

We can see by this very simple model that it does not take a huge shift in any direction to drastically change the temperature of the planet.  We would be wise to remember that the difference between an ice age and our current comfort zone is only about 5C.  All of these factors shifted the temperature by far more than that with only 10% change in either direction.


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